Four teams. Four rounds played. Two wins and two losses apiece. This isn’t a rugby championship; it’s a knife fight. Total points separate the hunters from the hunted, making this run-in perhaps the most unpredictable finale the competition has ever seen.

The title is hanging by a thread.

The numbers

The math is brutal. After four matches, Australia currently sits atop the table with 11 points. They lead the pack, having secured 114 points for and conceded 104, resulting in a +10 points difference. Crucially, the Wallabies have piled up 17 tries, the most in the tournament, spearheaded by top try-scorer Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i, who has crossed the line four times.

Behind them, the reigning world champions, South Africa, and the All Blacks are tied on 10 points.

South Africa carries the real weight of momentum. They boast the best points difference at +18 (112 points for, 94 against), a statistic largely bolstered by their record 43–10 demolition of New Zealand in Wellington. The Springboks have scored 14 tries.

New Zealand is the global heavyweight currently staggering on the ropes. They also sit on 10 points but possess the worst points difference at -15 (98 points for, 113 against). This deficit makes the path forward steep, especially after a “shock upset” loss to Argentina and that heavy defeat to the Springboks.

Argentina remains the dark horse, holding 9 points. Their success has been built on grit, achieving two first-time triumphs this year: beating Australia in Sydney and securing a win over New Zealand on Argentine soil. Los Pumas rely heavily on the boot of Santiago Carreras, who leads all players with 49 points scored. However, their forward pack struggles with efficiency, and they have the tournament’s lowest try count at eight, meaning they have yet to register a try-scoring bonus point.

The favourites

Two rounds are left on the docket, four games that will decide everything.

Round 5 puts the Wallabies against the All Blacks at Eden Park, Auckland. History is clear: Eden Park has been a graveyard for Australian hopes, who haven’t won there since 1986. South Africa faces Argentina in Durban.

The final round sees the All Blacks and Wallabies clash again in Perth, while the Springboks and Pumas will settle their score in London at Twickenham. This neutral fixture for South Africa versus Argentina takes away the South American home advantage, an element worth around four and a half points in modeling terms.

The Verdict from the Bookies and the Algorithm

The experts and the odds agree: the title is headed to New Zealand or South Africa. The chasing pack needs favors.

South Africa is the bookmaker’s clear favorite, trading at 10/11 to win the Championship outright. New Zealand follows at 7/4. The algorithm, while initially shocked by the volatility – noting that the predictive game has been far from easy this year – has adjusted its outlook. Based on momentum and the favorable neutral final fixture, the Springboks hold the advantage.

Fans echo this sentiment: many believe South Africa and New Zealand will likely split their series 1–1, forcing the winner to be determined by the results against Australia and Argentina.

For Australia (12/1) and Argentina (28/1), the path is steep. They almost certainly need to win both remaining matches, while relying on the All Blacks and Springboks to cancel each other out. According to the predictive models, Australia and Argentina each have only about a 10% chance of winning the tournament.

The Prediction

This competition feels wide open. South Africa is the world’s N°1 ranked side and carries immense momentum after thrashing the All Blacks. The gut feeling across the rugby community is that the Advantage lies with South Africa.

If the Springboks can sweep Argentina – winning in Durban and again in London – and New Zealand and Australia split their two-match series, the title is almost certainly theirs. With the margins razor-thin, the outcome will likely hinge on bonus points.

The final two rounds are not just about who wins, but by how much. The Great Southern Grind is nearing its brutal conclusion.